Avoiding Illiberal Democracy in Ukraine
Ukraine does not have the greatest track record of democratic processes compared to some European neighbors. As a growing number of Americans have come to know more about Ukrainian history since the beginning of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. Interest in Ukraine has increased significantly since last year. There is an assumption among many in the Ukrainian American community that most Americans could not identify Ukraine on a map before 2022 and even fewer before 2014 when Russia illegally annexed the Crimea. A google trend comparison between the search terms ‘ukraine’, ‘germany’, ‘russia’, and ‘united states’ shows that Ukraine has the lowest search volume and interest of all of these nations since 2004. Up until recently Ukraine has been very overlooked on the global stage.
Since the invasion, greater discussion about Ukraine is taking place. Many have been hyper-critical of the democratic track record of Ukraine and how it separates the nation from the rest of the West. Many Americans are already growing weary of the American support for Ukraine according to the Brookings Institute.[1] This should be concerning that the public perception of Ukraine is drifting toward assuming the nation is undeserving of a place in the West due to poor democratic processes in the past and that the United States role in supporting Ukraine should be diminished.
Ukraine currently is poised for an incredible leap in the direction of democracy and the United States, as the leading democracy in the liberal global order should do all that it can to support Ukraine. The war in Ukraine will end eventually. Perhaps it will take longer than the global community hopes for, but the likelihood of Ukrainian national integrity and autonomy being preserved and the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine coming to a close is high and growing frequently. The next issue at stake is much less regarding Ukrainian autonomy but its success in rebuilding the country Russia has left destroyed.
To begin, Ukrainian reconstruction in its own right is a vast topic that covers issues of finance, fiscal policy, foreign policy, diplomacy, political science, and military capability. The issue of democratic progression in Ukraine is both an issue of Ukrainian reconstruction and Ukrainian reform. The greatest opportunity that Ukraine has in its current state is the ability to reform much of the country through the support of the Western powers that are backing it. In this capacity, Ukraine has the potential to become a strong pillar of democracy in Eastern Europe that will set an example for democratic progression in the region as Soviet influence wanes and Russian aggression loses its power.
For Ukraine, it is not only imperative to the success of the nation that it moves away from Russian influence in its economic and financial sectors to avoid a retreat to the old-style oligarchy that defined the Soviet era of the nation as well as the period since its independence in 1991, but it is imperative to avoid it in other capacities as well. The most essential is in the democratic processes of the nation. The progression of Ukraine’s economy, military, diplomatic processes, geopolitical standing, and the quality of life for its citizens will not improve unless the opportunity in front of Ukraine is seized by the administration and those in power in Kyiv.
Opportunity
To begin, let us define the opportunity ahead of Ukraine. The breadbasket of Europe, second largest country in Europe after Russia, one of the largest economies in former-Soviet states, and a country with one of the oldest recorded democracies outside of Greece. Ukraine has quite the resume for being somewhat overlooked by the Western world for decades, or even centuries. Now, centered on the global stage at the forefront of discussions of democracy vs. authoritarianism, civilization, international order, global supply chains, and global finance, Ukraine has been placed into a role only a few nations have been placed into. That position is what should be referred to as a ‘pivot country’. A pivot country is a nation that is relatively small on the global stage but becomes the battleground for something larger than the issue at hand. Examples are primarily from the Cold War such as Vietnam and Korea that had relatively small positions in a global context but became a battleground for major powers to determine ideological power. Being a pivot country, Ukraine has the opportunity to utilize its newfound fame and unprecedented support for its own gain or for its own detriment. In terms of the opportunity, Ukraine could take steps to create a strong judicial system based upon the fair and free rule of law, a free market economy, invite foreign capital, build its own capital power, and establish itself as the primary power in Eastern Europe– all with the support of American and European power and aid. If Ukraine were to take advantage of this opportunity, the quality of life in Ukraine would increase and the ability for the nation to be self-sufficient would be secure. These developments would most likely lead to membership in both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union for the newfound Eastern European powerhouse.
Following the end of the conflict with Russia, there is one threat that would prevent this opportunity from being seized– backsliding, illiberal democracy.
Join us next week when we discuss the threats to democratic progress in Ukraine. This is the first article in our series on fighting illiberal democracy in a post-war Ukraine. Please subscribe and find us on social media.
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americans-show-signs-of-impatience-with-ukraine-war/